Understanding Security

[perechon]

Actually I stand before a level 50 jewel box and try to determine what to do best to open this thing.

I´ve tried lockpicking with a master lockpick, I get the message "too complex".
Now I try to understand the formula of the chance for lockpicking. ( (Stats Modifier * Equipment Modifier * Fatigue Modifier) - Lock Difficulty )
I have Security 24, Agility 40, Luck 42 and 180 of 180 fatigue.
Stats Modifier ( 24 + 40/5 + 42/10 ) * Equipment Modifier ( 1,3 ) * Fatigue Modifier ( 1,25 ) - Lock Difficulty ( 50 ) should be about 8-9% chance for success?
Why then do I get the message "too complex", the chance should be a negative one according to the UESP Morrowind security wiki!

Where is my calculating error?

[SeaGtGruff]

Could it be your Fatigue Modifier? Where are you getting 1.25 from?

[SeaGtGruff]

Okay, I read that section of the wiki and see that 1.25 is correct.

But I found a possible clue in the wording for the stats modifier:

In essence, your Stats Modifier is equal to your Security skill, increased by 1 for every 5 points of Agility or 10 points of Luck you have.

Note that word, "or"-- not "1 for every 5 points of Agility and 10 points of Luck," but "or." It might be nothing, but it makes me wonder if the formula for the stats modifier should be

Security + max((Agility/5), (Luck/10))

or something like that. In your case, that would make the stats modifier 32 rather than 36.2, and the final value would be

44.7 - 50 = -5.3

But as I said, it might be nothing. Although if the numbers you listed are correct, I don't see how the outcome could be a negative value unless there's a problem with the formula.

[perechon]

It might be nothing, but it makes me wonder if the formula for the stats modifier should be
Security + max((Agility/5), (Luck/10))

OK, might be an explanation, in this case the wiki should be updated.
I will try to verify this.

By the way, I tried to reproduce the value 44.7:
32 * Equipment modifier (1.3) equals 41.6, multiplied with the Fatigue modifier (1.25) equals 52 !
Somehow I seem to calculate differently than you!

[SeaGtGruff]

Eh, I think I was scribbling on a scrap of paper trying different things and must have got some numbers mixed up, because when I do it on a calculator I also get 52.

[perechon]

Ok, I´ve played some further now.
Now, I have the following stats: Security 24, Agility 55, Luck 43, Fatigue 225 of 225, and the lock is still too complex.
After raising security one time ( to 25 ) the lock is not too complex any more, so the chance of success is not a negative one.
Now we can continue the calculations!

Stats Modifier ( 24 + 55/5 + 43/10 ) * Equipment Modifier ( 1.3 ) * Fatigue Modifier ( 1.25 ) eqauls 63.9 after that minus Lock Difficulty ( 50 ) is round about 13.9 % .
Looks as wrong as before, since it´s not near 0 %

Now let´s try the formula of SeaGtGruff:
(Security + max((Agility/5), (Luck/10))) * Equipment modifier * Fatigue modifier so (24+11)*1.3*1.25= 56.9
6.9 % looks better than before, but still not correct.

Stats Modifier ( 24 + 55/5 - 43/10 ) * Equipment Modifier ( 1.3 ) * Fatigue Modifier ( 1.25 ) would equal about 50, but where is the meaning of reducing the sum of Security and Agility-chance by the Luck-chance? This makes me wonder, if the formula integrated in my game is correct? Was it changed by my mods, or is it exactly the same in vanilla Morrowind?